How businesses can stay winter-ready in Alberta’s changing energy market

As winter settles across Alberta, businesses face a uniquely challenging energy landscape, shaped not only by seasonal demand, but by significant shifts in market dynamics that are reshaping both long-term costs and short-term price behaviour.

The province’s electricity system is undergoing rapid transformation. Clean energy growth, evolving regulations, and rising large-load demand are modernizing Alberta’s grid all the while  contributing to structural cost pressures and sharper volatility. 

This winter, proactive planning is essential for businesses aiming to stay resilient, cost-efficient, and competitively positioned.

Short-Term Winter Volatility: The New Normal

The Market Surveillance Administrator’s (MSA) Q1 2025 Wholesale Market Report highlights a trend that continues into the winter months: hourly pool prices are increasingly unpredictable.

Key drivers include:

• Weather extremes and cold snaps, pushing heating demand higher
• Intermittent renewable generation, particularly during low-solar periods
• Unexpected generator outages and tightening supply margins

For businesses exposed to spot pricing, this volatility can quickly escalate operating costs. Winter only intensifies the risk.

Long-Term Price Pressures Are Building

Beyond short-term volatility, long-term futures continue to rise as Alberta transitions away from coal toward gas and renewables.

Key structural drivers include:

• Higher capital costs for new generation and firm capacity
• Transmission expansion to support renewable integration
• Market reforms shifting more cost recovery to end-users
• Growing demand from new large loads. AESO projects up to 1,200 MW of additional demand by 2028

These factors signal a future where waiting to act may mean locking in higher rates or missing strategic procurement opportunities.

Winter Reliability and Operational Risks for Businesses

Winter introduces added operational pressures that affect organizations of all sizes. These include:

• Energy reliability concerns, driven by increased heating loads and the potential for outages
• Infrastructure vulnerabilities, such as aging HVAC systems or uninsulated piping
• Resource constraints, making reactive maintenance costly and disruptive

Managing energy and operational risk this season requires a proactive, strategic approach.

Practical Winter Preparedness Steps for Businesses

Below are cost-effective actions that organizations can take immediately to strengthen resilience:

1. Enhance Energy Management

• Conduct a basic review to identify efficiency improvements
• Consider backup power solutions for essential systems
• Optimize heating schedules and upgrade to efficient equipment

2. Maintain and Protect Infrastructure

• Schedule professional servicing for heating equipment
• Insulate exposed pipes and protect vulnerable areas
• Clear roofs, gutters, and drainage paths to prevent ice or snow damage

Strategic Moves to Navigate the Market

This winter is also a strategic moment for businesses to prepare for Alberta’s evolving electricity landscape.

Consider the following:

• Secure long-term fixed-price contracts while rates remain competitive
• Adopt blended hedging strategies to balance stability and flexibility
• Explore on-site generation or demand response to reduce peak exposure
• Use DNE’s market intelligence to guide timing, procurement, and risk management decisions

In Alberta’s deregulated market, delayed action can increase exposure to higher costs and operational risks.